2020 Oscar Predictions

As I've been banging on for weeks on this blog, Parasite should win. But the Oscars are very rarely about "deserve". When Moonlight rightly triumphed over Blah Blah Bland  three years ago, that was such a surprise, because it's unusual for the Oscars to actually reward the best film of the year!

Going by that train of thought, I don't expect the Academy to pleasantly surprise me tonight, and thus, they'll give the big two awards to the cut-rate Dunkirk, instead of the genuine originality and acuity of Parasite.

Best Picture - 1917
Best Director - Sam Mendes, 1917
Best Actor - Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
Best Actress - Renee Zellweger, Judy
Best Supporting Actor - Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Best Supporting Actress - Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Best Adapted Screenplay - Jojo Rabbit
Best Original Screenplay - Parasite

Even though I pessimistically predicted Once Upon a Time... in Hollywood to triumph in this category at the BAFTAs last Sunday, I screamed with delight when I was proved wrong, and Flo Pugh announced Parasite as the winner!

Not just because Parasite is the infinitely superior written film, but because it meant the momentum was with Parasite to go on and win Best Original Screenplay at the Oscars. And thus, I am predicting it to rightfully be crowned here tonight!

Academy, don't let me down and give it to OUATIH! Quentin Tarantino does not deserve a third Oscar! He barely deserves one.

Best Animated Feature - Klaus
Best Animated Short - Hair Love
Best Documentary Feature - American Factory
Best Documentary Short - Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone (If You're a Girl)
Best International Film - Parasite
Best Live Action Short - Nefta Football Club
Best Cinematography - 1917
Best Costume Design - Little Women
Best Film Editing - Parasite

The bookies have the same odds for Parasite to take Editing as they do Ford vs Ferrari, and most Oscar-prognosticators are split evenly for who they're predicting for this category. Parasite has fewer cuts, 960 compared to the average in a film of 1,250, and Ford vs Ferrari's car-racing scenes were certainly cut with flair.

The Academy have historically rewarded the editing for frenetic films that rely on more editing (e.g. Whiplash, Mad Max: Fury Road and last year's egregious win for Bohemian Rhapsody), which would favour Ford vs Ferrari.

But I am stubbornly predicting hopefully here, almost in the hope of willing a win for Parasite. Much of the enjoyment of Parasite came from the economy of  each scene; there wasn't a superfluous shot in the film. Every shot served a purpose, even if you didn't realise its purpose until later. The editing in Parasite may be less flashy than in Ford vs Ferrari, but it aids the story (and Bong's vision) perfectly. So I hope the Academy repay my faith and reward the editor here.

It would send a great message that the Academy reward crafts on the quality of them, rather than the quantity.

Best Makeup and Hair Styling - Bombshell
Best Production Design - Once Upon A Time in Hollywood

Parasite deserves to win in this category (it deserves to win all six of its categories!), but sadly, I think the Academy will go for the more in-your-face sets of Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. La La Land won this category three years ago, and the art decor in this film was reminiscent of LLL.

But in terms of astute use of the production design to assist telling your story, Parasite deserves this, hands down.

Best Visual Effects - 1917
Best Original Score - Joker
Best Original Song - "(I'm Gonna) Love Me Again," Rocketman
Best Sound Mixing - 1917
Best Sound Editing - 1917

So sadly, I'm predicting six awards for Call of Duty: WW1. I want Parasite to win all six awards it's nominated for, and to make myself feel better about the fact that it's probably not happening, I partook in some emotional hedging in the form of a monetary bet:

If 1917 is going to steal Parasite's awards, I may as well make £7.38 out of it! (I haven't gambled for nearly four years, and I lost £10 that time. I would gladly take the money hit this year, if it meant Bong's masterpiece was justly rewarded!)

Oscars Not Bad

The acting class of 2018 including two sparring partners Outside Ebbing, Missouri. The most predictable batch of winners in recent years, but hey, no Casey Affleck or Emma Stone in sight, so not as objectionable as last year!

Hot dang! I should have put a bet down yesterday, because, bar the short film categories, I got every feature length film category bang on! Ohai, sick predictions! This is by far the best showing I’ve had since creating this blog at the age of 15, and, I have to say, it feels pretty satisfying!

BAFTAs so beige.

So, the BAFTAs were on Sunday, and such were the uninspired, bland, going with the crowd wins, that I really didn't feel motivated to do a debrief post, because it would consist almost entirely of me whining (and, as Jennifer Lawrence's essay on how underpaid she was for American Hustle demonstrates, complaining is never a good look).

But, some time has elapsed (to quote Frozen, 'it's funny how some distance, makes everything seem small'), thus, I will share my thoughts on the ceremony and what it means for the Oscar race (spoiler alert: nothing. We've become predictors rather than influencers).

I was ecstatic for Brit Daniel Kaluuya, who won the Rising Star Award. This prize is voted for by the British public and essentially weathervane of who the audience likes best. Given that cinemagoers are the people who make film stars who they are, it's not a bad prize to win.

A whole lot of DUNKIRK talk.

I’ve recently been losing a lot of time down the rabbit hole that is TV tropes, which outlines common storytelling devices, arcs and techniques employed in film and TV. It doesn’t just dissect the plot of films but the cast and credits as well, and one of their pages, ‘And Starring’, offered some food for thought.

BAFTA nominations!!!!!

Best film
Arrival
I, Daniel Blake
La La Land
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight

Aside from the inclusion of the very British (and very fine, my second of the year so far) I, Daniel Blake, the other four are all now considered locks when Best Picture at the Oscars get announced. 

Best British film 
American Honey 
Denial 
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them 
I, Daniel Blake 
Notes on Blindness 
Under the Shadow

Best film not in the English language 
Dheepan 
Julieta 
Mustang 
Son of Saul 
Toni Erdmann

Elle and The Handmaiden weren't eligible because they're not being released here until March and April, respectively. Son and Saul and Mustang, which were nominated at last year's Oscars, weren't eligible in time for last year's BAFTAs, but were obviously too strong to be forgotten, so they have their belated nominations now.

Best documentary 
13th 
The Beatles: Eight Days a Week – The Touring Years 
The Eagle Huntress 
Notes on Blindness 
Weiner 

I haven't seen any of these because documentaries bore me to tears. #SorryNotSorry

Best animated film
Finding Dory
Kubo and the Two Strings
Moana
Zootropolis

Haha at BAFTA not being able to find five Animated films they felt passionately about. Whilst I'm glad that means the overrated Your Name doesn't get nominated, I do feel When Marnie Was There deserves to be in the pantheon of the films listed; particularly Finding Dory which it was far superior to.

Best director
Denis Villeneuve (Arrival)
Ken Loach (I, Daniel Blake)
Damien Chazelle (La La Land)
Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester by the Sea)
Tom Ford (Nocturnal Animals)

Barry Jenkins not getting nominated for Moonlight will damage the film's credentials as the main competitor to La La Land for Best Movie at the Oscars. :( I'm happy to see some recognition for Ken Loach, however. He crafted a really touching and powerful film in I, Daniel Blake and deserves to be nominated. Not so sure about Tom Ford, on the other hand.

Best original screenplay
Hell or High Water
I, Daniel Blake
La La Land
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight

Best adapted screenplay
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
Hidden Figures
Lion
Nocturnal Animals

Jesus, dat adapted screenplay category. It's a shame that Screenplay is the only place where Hidden Figures is recognised; I hear it's quite good. And no Fences in adapted but Nocturnal Animals and Hacksaw Ridge are present? Damn. The shade of it all.

I'm also disappointed that the very British treat Love and Friendship, an adaptation of a Jane Austen novella, wasn't recognised here, given it featured some of the wittiest one-liners in 2016.

Best actor
Andrew Garfield (Hacksaw Ridge)
Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea)
Jake Gyllenhaal (Nocturnal Animals)
Ryan Gosling (La La Land)
Viggo Mortensen (Captain Fantastic)

No Denzel, BAFTA???? WTF???? It's crazy that BAFTA have never nominated Denzel Washington.

I ain't even mad about David Oyelowo's snub for A United Kingdom, as well as A United Kingdom's absence on the list overall. I presume they didn't send screeners (or I'm just gonna tell myself that).

I love Jake Gyllenhaal a lot (Brokeback Mountain is my sixth favourite film of all time and he was snubbed of an Oscar nomination for Nightcrawler) but he was, dare I say it... a little hammy in Nocturnal Animals, especially in the scene where he breaks down in front of Aaron Taylor-Johnson's redneck. It would be a shame if he got nominated for an Oscar for his awards-begging turn.

Best actress
Amy Adams (Arrival)
Emily Blunt (The Girl on the Train)
Emma Stone (La La Land)
Meryl Streep (Florence Foster Jenkins)
Natalie Portman (Jackie)

With Isabelle Huppert out of contention due to her film's late release, this was pretty expected. I did expect BAFTA to use that fifth spot on their very own Emily Blunt, who was fantastic (my number 1 in Leading Actress so far) in the otherwise terrible The Girl on the Train, but, given they overlooked Charlotte Rampling last year for 45 Years, I couldn't be sure.

The fact that Jackie only has two other technical nominations indicate to me that BAFTA didn't love the film, thus they'll probably give the win to the Yellowfaced Felicia for playing Emma Stone in the Emma Stone Biopic. However, I'm praying for a curveball; Emma Stone doesn't need a BAFTA yet and Amy Adams or Emily Blunt deserve it more. I certainly haven't seen them taking any whitewashed roles.

Best supporting actor 
Aaron Taylor-Johnson (Nocturnal Animals)
Dev Patel (Lion)
Hugh Grant (Florence Foster Jenkins)
Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water)
Mahershala Ali (Moonlight)

What a week Gorgeous Taylor-Johnson is having. A few weeks ago he wasn't in the Oscar race, with most preferring Michael Shannon's work in Nocturnal Animals. Now he has a Golden Globe win under his belt, and his home nation have gotten behind him. I'm not surprised BAFTA nominated ATJ; they liked Nowhere Boy a lot (which is where he met his missus, 50 Shades of Grey director Sam Taylor-Johnson). His acceptance speech at the Golden Globes was very humble and concise and it's clear he loves his wife a lot, which I really adore. Would LOVE for all this momentum to result in an Oscar nomination. His days of being wooden in Anna Karenina are long-forgotten!

The other four nominations are probably going to be considered locks come Oscar nomination morning. It's funny; BAFTA go out of their way to show they're ~above Category Fraud~, for example, by nominating Felicia Vikander in The Danish Girl for Lead Actress last year when she campaigned for Supporting, and doing the same with Hailee Steinfeld for True Grit and as well as Bérénice Bejo for The Artist, amongst others. But Brits Dev Patel and Hugh Grant are commonly considered leading performances, yet BAFTA have nominated them in the only category they can find space for them.

The BAFTAs aren't above category fraud themselves, then.

Best supporting actress 
Hayley Squires (I, Daniel Blake)
Michelle Williams (Manchester by the Sea)
Naomie Harris (Moonlight)
Nicole Kidman (Lion)
Viola Davis (Fences)

Delighted for Hayley Squires, who is currently fourth in my personal ballot. The food bank scene in I, Daniel Blake was gut wrenching and her acting in it was understated perfection.

The other four ladies on this list are probably locks for Oscar nominations now.

Best original music 
Arrival 
Jackie 
La La Land 
Lion 
Nocturnal Animals 


Best cinematography 
Arrival 
Hell or High Water 
La La Land 
Lion 
Nocturnal Animals 

Best editing 
Arrival 
Hacksaw Ridge 
La La Land 
Manchester by the Sea
Nocturnal Animals 

Best production design 
Doctor Strange 
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them 
Hail, Caesar! 
La La Land 
Nocturnal Animals 

So they saw Hail, Caesar, then? Then where's Alden Ehrenreich's nomination for his unforgettably charming, perfectly comedic turn??

The rest of the technical noms here.

Overall, this is... pretty weak stuff. The suspect acting nominations, the category fraud, the shutout for Moonlight in direction and editing, all points to a sweep for Step Up 9: The Emma Stone Biopic in the manner of their massive Golden Globes wins on Sunday. It looks like BAFTAs have tried a wee bit too hard to predict the Oscars, and the results, bar Emily Blunt and ATJ's nominations, utterly, utterly inspiring. 

I really hope they throw some curveballs when announcing the winners!

Like father, like daughter.

I can’t tell a lie, I went into Somewhere not totally expecting to like it. All I’d known about it before watching was that it won the Golden Lion at the Venice film festival and was generally applauded around the States, but was less-than-warmly received in the UK. And, from some reviews I’d seen which had said the film’s biggest shortcoming was that it tried too hard to emulate Coppola’s 2003 film Lost in Translation (a film, by the way, that I don’t exactly care for). With things like that on its side, it’s no wonder that I approached Somewhere with a level of trepidation. However, films can sometimes prove you wrong. Last year, I watched Bright Star not expecting a whole lot, and adored it. Similarly, Somewhere proved to be a pleasant surprise.

Stephen Dorff plays Johnny Marco, a Hollywood hunk who fills the emptiness that he finds increasingly present in his life with random parties and random women. One day, his 11-year-old daughter Cleo (played by Elle “Dakota’s sister” Fanning”) bungs up and the two are thrown together in a journey of finding out more about each other, and essentially, themselves. It’s a fairly simple premise that has been covered in several films before, but there’s a gentle chemistry between Dorff and Fanning that elevates the film from smug-satire-on-the-privileged that it could so easily slip into. It hardly feels like Stephen Dorff is acting at all, he fits his role so well, and Fanning has none of the precocious know-it-allness that rendered her sister so irksome to me. Furthermore, she plays Cleo with some sweet little mannerisms – the odd hair toss, a bit of thumb twiddling – that indicates the uneasiness and vulnerability of a girl caught in that awkward phase of pre-teenhood, yo-yoed about between two worlds and never feeling like she fits in. It’s a subtle, smart performance that probably deserves more plaudits than it has received.

As with Lost in Translation, there are some indulgent elements to the film that one can’t help feeling Coppola put in the film for herself more than her viewers (a semi-pointless and totally awkward lift scene with Benicio del Toro, far too lingering scenes of pole-dancers entertaining Marco in his hotel room, etc), but these are juxtaposed with scenes that, whilst indulgent, fit in with the film perfectly; shots of Cleo cooking for her and her dad, tracking shots of Johnny Marco’s celebrity being spotted everywhere he goes, as well Cleo describing the plot of Twilight to Johnny. As Cleo fills in Johnny’s days with her favourite activities, his life (perhaps unsurprisingly) sheds its emptiness. But it is a surprising joy to see them on their journey. Apparently much of the film was based around Coppola's own experiences of following her dad around, which would explain the scenes set in Italy, featuring amusing skits on language and culture barriers between Hollywood and the Europeans.

Essentially, what the film could have done with the most was perhaps having the audience care about the leads a little more; whilst I liked them just fine, I never felt I totally fell in love with them like I have done with various other film characters of the noughties (for example, Inglourious Basterd’s Shoshanna, Brokeback Mountain’s Jack Twist, Finding Nemo’s Dory, etc), but nonetheless, Coppola sure knows how to deliver a film. The soundtrack is kooky and fresh (I particularly enjoyed the part Gwen Stefani’s “Cool” played in the film; a song that could perhaps sum up the theme of the film quite well) and Sarah Flack’s editing, with her collaborations with Coppola in Marie-Antoinette and Lost in Translation, cannot be faulted. Ultimately, I didn’t entirely get where the film was headed, but, perhaps like the dad and the daughter in the film, the joy is knowing that they will get, somewhere.