Back to film awards prognosticating, the very reason I started this blog! Whilst I haven't dedicated a full blog post to predicting the Oscars since 2019, I've still religiously recorded my predictions for the Oscars and various precursors, so I can track my accuracy. In the case of this year's BAFTAs, I did pretty atrociously, and I'm looking to redeem myself with my predictions today!
The irony that Zootropolis 2 is one of the reasons why I lost the prediction game!
OBAA has swept the PGAs, BAFTAs, Critics Choice and Golden Globes, making it the mathematically straightforward Best Picture pick. I note that some other Oscar predictors are tentatively pivoting to Sinners, as that took Best Ensemble at the Screen Actor Guilds (as I predicted), as well as the fact that the film has a record sixteen Oscar nominations, suggesting a huge passion for it among Oscar voters. Whilst I certainly think the Academy liked it a lot, and will reward it in several categories, I'm still predicting the frontrunner here.
Best Director: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
The bookies currently have MBJ and Timothée Chalamet practically neck and neck for Best Actor, with MBJ just fractionally ahead. Chalamet took the early lead in the Oscar race, winning Best Actor - Comedy at the Golden Globes and then Best Actor at the Critics Choice.
However, his insufferable antics in campaigning, where he definitely leant into method performing his character Marty Mauser and his maddening ways too much, culminated in him flying far too close to the sun, and denigrating ballet and opera. This has got predictors opining whether the way Chalamet ceded his frontrunner status was one of the biggest unforced errors in awards campaigning history.
On Michael B. Jordan's part, he won Best Actor at the SAGs, and actors make up the largest voting bloc of the Academy, which suggests the momentum may have swung in his favour, especially given the uproarious reception he received. I'm hope-predicting here a bit, because I can't stand Chalamet anymore (I know, quite the reversal of fortune, given how obsessed with him I was back in 2018), and I really couldn't stomach his ego and Tarantino-style self-aggrandizing speech, were he to win.
One of the biggest locks of the night. She has won pretty much every precursor, and the role itself (grieving mother in a historical prestige picture) is catnip for Academy voters.
Supporting Actor: Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
I'd rather he didn't win, as he doesn't sound like a very nice person; there have been multiple allegations of domestic abuse against him from various women. However, predicting the Oscars, and watching people I don't like take the stage has long felt like One Battle After Another (🥁), so that's just par for the course.
The fact that Penn couldn't even be bothered to turn up to the BAFTAs (who won't like that one bit, given the huge chip on their shoulder about being regarded as the afterthought to the Oscars) nor the SAGs, shows that he isn't particularly bothered about whether or not he wins. This tracks, given that he already has two Oscars for Leading Actor, so I imagine he doesn't think a Supporting Actor win from a precursor is even worth getting out of bed for.
But regardless of whether or not he cares about his win, the fact that he won at BAFTA and SAG, the two precursors that have the strongest Oscar correlation suggest that the numbers are on his side. Make space of trophy number three, Sean.
Supporting Actress: Amy Madigan, Weapons
One of the more unpredictable categories of the night. The wealth has been spread quite evenly when it comes to precursors here, with Teyana Taylor taking the Golden Globe, Wunmi Mosaku winning the BAFTA and Amy herself winning the Critics Choice and SAG.
Madigan's film is not as favoured by the Academy as her two competitors' are, with her being Weapons' solitary nomination. But I feel that her longevity in Hollywood, her being one half of a power couple with Ed Harris, and her iconically creepy Aunt Gladys, should tip the scales.
Madigan's first Oscar nomination came forty years ago in this very category; a win tonight would mark a satisfying full circle moment.
Animated Feature: K-Pop Demon Hunters
They're going up, up, this is their moment!
Adapted Screenplay: One Battle After Another
Original Screenplay: Sinners
I see the two screenwriting awards going to the two most popular films with the Academy.
Best Documentary Feature: The Perfect Neighbour
Best Documentary Short Subject: All the Empty Rooms
Best Live Action Short Film: Two People Exchanging Saliva
Best Animated Short: Butterfly
Best Foreign Language Film: Sentimental Value
Original Song: 'Golden' from K-Pop Demon Hunters
This is my pick to win from the nominations, although 'Golden' isn't even my favourite song from the soundtrack - 'Your Idol' and 'Takedown' would take that honour. My baby loves it when I sing 'Soda Pop' to her, swapping her name for the title.
Original Score: Sinners
Costume design: Frankenstein
Production design: Frankenstein
These two tech awards went to Wicked: Part 1 last year, but the sequel Wicked: For Good has completely fallen out of favour, failing to secure a single nomination.
Make-up and hair: Frankenstein
Sound: F1
Editing: One Battle After Another
Cinematography: One Battle After Another
Casting: Sinners
VFX: Avatar
And that's a wrap! I'm curious and excited to see how my predictions hold up tonight.
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