I'm seeing Fences later, and then immediately after the winners of the BAFTAs will be available online. I will have to avoid the internet for 2 hours until 9pm so I can watch them 'live' on the BBC and check how I fared in my predictions, swoon at the fit celebrities and their wardrobe and bask in the general movie love!
Even though I expect La La Land to sweep comfortably tonight, a film I am very 'meh' about, I'm still looking forward to the BAFTAs tonight; following movie awards in the 2006 season and rooting for Brokeback Mountain was the reason I started this blog, after all.
I heard on the grapevine that Isabelle Huppert (who wasn't nominated for Elle, which was ineligible due to British release dates, but was eligible but not nominated for Things to Come) will be presenting Best Actress. That is some very cheeky/brazen campaigning from Sony, worthy of the character Michèle Leblanc! If Leonardo DiCaprio or Felicia Vikander had pulled such a move last year, I would have cringed at dat thirst, but as it's La Reine Isabelle, I dig her audacity.
So, without further ado, the predictions!
Best film: La La Land (second guess: Moonlight)
Best director: Damien Chazelle, La La Land (second guess: Denis Villeneuve, Arrival)
Leading man: Creepy Affleck, Manchester by the Sea (second guess: Ryan Gosling, La La Land)
Leading lady: Emma Stone, La La Land (second guess: Natalie Portman, Jackie)
I would love it if Amy Adams won this category as a consolation for her missing out on an Oscar nomination, but, given how obsessed the British press have been with La La Land with their sheep-like behaviour in mirroring each other's 5-star reviews, I don't see it happening. Also, because of the bath-tub scene in Batman v Superman.
Altho, actually, if we were to award BAFTAs according to my personal ballot, Emily Blunt is still number 1. I can't get over how good she was; it was like being face-to-face with a genuinely pitable alcoholic. I kind of have Adams and Stone tied in second in my personal ballot, I'd just rather Adams won for obvious reasons like never having done yellowface.
The Evening Standard seem to think Isabelle Huppert might win the BAFTA for Best Actress. If she does, that would be impressive, given she wasn't nominated.
Supporting actor: Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (second guess: Gorgeous Taylor-Johnson, Nocturnal Animals)
I'm probably being biased predicting ATJ as second most likely, but, surely the BAFTA voters must have been hurting on his behalf for not getting nominated for an Oscar? Aaron winning the Golden Globe but missing out on an Oscar nomination is the first time that's happened since Richard Benjamin in 1976 for The Sunshine Boys.
I've read some very interesting discourse online that actors who don't play down their handsomeness (which, despite his repulsive redneck character he's nominated for, ATJ doesn't do in real life. Did you see him at the Golden Globes? *fans self*) tend to miss out on Oscar nominations, and this would certainly explain a few egregious snubs in the past, chiefly, Leonardo DiCaprio not getting nominated for Titanic even though he was brilliant, and James McAvoy not getting nominated for Atonement even tho he was the joint third best thing about the very solid film.
You can only be a really obviously good-looking actor and get Oscar recognition if yer name's Ryan Gosling, it seems.
/chatting shit because my boy ATJ didn't get nominated for an Oscar and I'm still salty
Supporting actress: Haley Squires, I, Daniel Blake (second guess: Viola Davis, Fences)
BAFTA try to make one outré move now and then, just to show that they're not simply Oscar prognosticators, but can exercise independent thought. Examples include giving Best Actress to Emmanuelle Riva (may she rest in peace) over Jennifer Lawrence in 2013 (one of the few things BAFTA did right!!), and, er, giving Best Supporting Actor to Bill Nighy for Love Actually.
I think the fact that many consider Viola a leading role in Fences and thus category fraud, the fact that BAFTA clearly weren't enamoured with the film, not nominating anywhere else, as well as the fact that I, Daniel Blake was very well-received by the British public, and Squires' food bank scene a huge part of the power of the film, will ultimately swing it in her favour. As the Riva/Nighy examples show, when BAFTA buck the trend, it tends to be for a choice that's more European or British in flavour.
However, I think that if there is one change from the Oscar probable winning acting foursome of Affleck/Stone/Ali/Davis, it will come in the supporting category, but only once. So basically, if Davis wins Supporting Actress, I think ATJ might win Supporting Actor tonight, and if Ali wins Supporting Actor, then Squires will win Supporting Actress. Just to show that the BAFTAs aren't sheep.
(although they kind of are. If they wanted to prove they weren't sheep last year, they really should have awarded Saoirse Ronan for Brooklyn, rather than Brie Larson for Room who had won pretty much every award going, because Ronan was miles better. Same the previous year for Rosamund Pike in Gone Girl)
/rantforanotherday.gif
I would love it if Amy Adams won this category as a consolation for her missing out on an Oscar nomination, but, given how obsessed the British press have been with La La Land with their sheep-like behaviour in mirroring each other's 5-star reviews, I don't see it happening. Also, because of the bath-tub scene in Batman v Superman.
Altho, actually, if we were to award BAFTAs according to my personal ballot, Emily Blunt is still number 1. I can't get over how good she was; it was like being face-to-face with a genuinely pitable alcoholic. I kind of have Adams and Stone tied in second in my personal ballot, I'd just rather Adams won for obvious reasons like never having done yellowface.
The Evening Standard seem to think Isabelle Huppert might win the BAFTA for Best Actress. If she does, that would be impressive, given she wasn't nominated.
Supporting actor: Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (second guess: Gorgeous Taylor-Johnson, Nocturnal Animals)
I'm probably being biased predicting ATJ as second most likely, but, surely the BAFTA voters must have been hurting on his behalf for not getting nominated for an Oscar? Aaron winning the Golden Globe but missing out on an Oscar nomination is the first time that's happened since Richard Benjamin in 1976 for The Sunshine Boys.
I've read some very interesting discourse online that actors who don't play down their handsomeness (which, despite his repulsive redneck character he's nominated for, ATJ doesn't do in real life. Did you see him at the Golden Globes? *fans self*) tend to miss out on Oscar nominations, and this would certainly explain a few egregious snubs in the past, chiefly, Leonardo DiCaprio not getting nominated for Titanic even though he was brilliant, and James McAvoy not getting nominated for Atonement even tho he was the joint third best thing about the very solid film.
You can only be a really obviously good-looking actor and get Oscar recognition if yer name's Ryan Gosling, it seems.
/chatting shit because my boy ATJ didn't get nominated for an Oscar and I'm still salty
Supporting actress: Haley Squires, I, Daniel Blake (second guess: Viola Davis, Fences)
BAFTA try to make one outré move now and then, just to show that they're not simply Oscar prognosticators, but can exercise independent thought. Examples include giving Best Actress to Emmanuelle Riva (may she rest in peace) over Jennifer Lawrence in 2013 (one of the few things BAFTA did right!!), and, er, giving Best Supporting Actor to Bill Nighy for Love Actually.
I think the fact that many consider Viola a leading role in Fences and thus category fraud, the fact that BAFTA clearly weren't enamoured with the film, not nominating anywhere else, as well as the fact that I, Daniel Blake was very well-received by the British public, and Squires' food bank scene a huge part of the power of the film, will ultimately swing it in her favour. As the Riva/Nighy examples show, when BAFTA buck the trend, it tends to be for a choice that's more European or British in flavour.
However, I think that if there is one change from the Oscar probable winning acting foursome of Affleck/Stone/Ali/Davis, it will come in the supporting category, but only once. So basically, if Davis wins Supporting Actress, I think ATJ might win Supporting Actor tonight, and if Ali wins Supporting Actor, then Squires will win Supporting Actress. Just to show that the BAFTAs aren't sheep.
(although they kind of are. If they wanted to prove they weren't sheep last year, they really should have awarded Saoirse Ronan for Brooklyn, rather than Brie Larson for Room who had won pretty much every award going, because Ronan was miles better. Same the previous year for Rosamund Pike in Gone Girl)
/rantforanotherday.gif
Best British film: Under the Shadow (second guess: I, Daniel Blake)
The panel for Best British film is different from the panel for Best film, otherwise, I Daniel Blake, which is nominate for Best Film, would have been my guess.
Outstanding Debut by a British filmmaker: Notes on Blindness (second guess: The Girl with all the Gifts)
Foreign Film: Son of Saul (second guess: Toni Erdmann)
Documentary: Notes on Blindness (second guess: The 13th)
Animated film: Zootropolis (second guess: Kubo and the Two Strings)
Original Screenplay: I, Daniel Blake (second guess: La La Land)
Original Screenplay: I, Daniel Blake (second guess: La La Land)
Whilst I've resigned myself to the fact that La La Land is basically winning everything tonight, if it snatches Original Script from I, Daniel Blake, I will find that a very bitter pill to swallow, given I, Daniel Blake's topical, moving and realistic screenplay was everything La La Land's wishy-washy 'follow your dreams' nonsense wasn't.
Adapted Screenplay: Lion (second guess: Arrival)
obligatory shoe-horning of Rooney Mara into every blog entry
Original Music: Jackie (second guess: La La Land)
I'm predicting Jackie for this because when I read reviews for the film, I distinctly remember several British film critics singling it out, and it was amazing. So here's hoping it wins, rather than the uninspiring, flat AF score of Blah Blah Land.
Cinematography: La La Land (second guess: Lion)
Editing: La La Land (second guess: Hacksaw Ridge)
Oh, Jesus. Tonight's gonna be unbearable. Fortunately, I watch the TV in our living room where there's a gym, so I can just hit the weights to drown out the speech of anyone who wins anything for La La Land, and Creepy Affleck's speech. #boom
Production Design: Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them (second guess: Doctor Strange)
If La La Land wins this category, then I will know BAFTA have left their thinking caps at home. The majority of the set for that film were basically leftover film sets! Awarding this for its production design (and costume) would be peak laziness.
Costume design: Jackie (second guess: La La Land)
As pretty as Emma Stone's dresses were, reproducing Jackie Kennedy's Chanel-infused wardrobe from the 60s was much more difficult than designing a few jewel-coloured dresses that clearly stole the colour palate from Akira Kursosawa's Ran. I really hope BAFTA take off their La La Land-tinted lenses and award the costume designer who deserves to be recognised.
Makeup and hair: Rogue One (second guess: Doctor Strange)
Visual effects: Doctor Strange (second guess: Arrival)
I didn't much care for Doctor Strange, I thought it was basically Inception with A-levels (credit to Mark Kermode for the 'with A-levels' punchline), but everyone raved on about the effects, so, guessing that.
Rising star award: Tom Holland (second guess: Ruth Negga)
This is voted for by the public, so I'm guessing Holland will win, on account of being in the most famous film, Box office-wise.
I haven't predicted the short films categories cos I ain't got a clue about them. Let's see how many of these I get right!
Finally, just to add fuel to my 'British film critics are sheep who are too scared to award La La Land anything other than 5 stars even if they didn't like it that much', David Sexton of the Evening Standard wrote this on Friday:
Quite a lot of low-key beef with La La Land, and fair (especially Emma Stone's struggling actress driving a Prius. Suuuuuure.) So why did he give the film 5 stars, then? #JustWondering
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