Sick Oscar graphic credit: Vulture. Guess the films represented!
Will win: The Shape of Water
Should win: Dunkirk
Should have been nominated: Coco
Even though Three Billboards... won the BAFTA and the Golden
Globe over The Shape of Water, it's a film that has almost as many detractors
as it does admirers.
The same was true of La La Land last year (positioning Ryan
Gosling as the white saviour of jazz is… messy), which won pretty much every
precursor under the sun, yet, in one of the greatest Oscar moments in history,
still lost Best Picture to Moonlight. (*James Franco in The Disaster
Artist-style laugh*)
Under the preferential ballot, I just can't see 3BB's
questionable racial posturing getting much love. The Shape of Water, which on the surface is about a woman bonking
a fishman, but really encourages love and tolerance, is much less contestable
in its morals than 3BB, and thus, I see it triumphing.
My personal choice would be Dunkirk, which, bar the
occasional tech award, has been frozen out in the precursors. The closest thing Dunkirk is getting to winning one of the main Oscars is if someone gets the
Sound and Best Actor envelopes mixed up.
(Warren Beatty and Faye Dunaway are presenting Best Picture
again this year, so one can but hope for another envelope fiasco!)
Insanely sick Oscar graphic credit: Olly Gibbs.
Director
Will: Guillermo del Toro
Should: Christopher Nolan
Deserved to get nominated: Sean Baker, The Florida Project
They can just carve GdT's name on the statue now; he's won
the Golden Globe, DGA and the BAFTA. He's a lovely guy and made one of my 25
favourite films of all time (Pan's Labyrinth), so I can't be too mad. But his
steamrollering awards season is harsh on Chris Nolan, who imbued Dunkirk with
visceral energy, and made an original, gripping story and immersive cinema-going
experience out of a well-traversed war movie set-up.
Cool stat: Del Toro's impending triumph on Sunday means this
will be the fourth time in five years Best Director has gone to a Mexican
Director!
Actor
Will win: Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Should win: Timothée Chalamet, Call Me By Your Name
Deserved to be nominated: Jacob Tremblay, Wonder
I genuinely loved Danny K, DDL (British men called Daniel
have talent... Unless they're football journalists for The Guardian) and
Timmy's performances, but the stage is set for Gary Oldman to win for his
portrayal as Winston Churchill.
Chalamet and Kaluuya are ingéndudes with very bright futures,
who will have plenty of opportunities to win in the future and DDL and Denzel
Washington already have multiple Oscars apiece. With the Golden Globe, SAG,
Critics’ Choice Award and BAFTA already won, this is Oldman’s to lose.
Actress
Will win: Frances McDormand, Three Billboards…
Should win: Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Deserved to be nominated: Vicky Krieps, Phantom Thread
Just as with Oldman, McDormand won the four big televised precursors.
Furthermore, in this current #TimesUp climate, a bolshie woman who won’t take
crap from moron men resonates particularly well with voters.
As strong as she was, Frances completely decimating the
competition seems a tad unfair on Sally Hawkins and Saoirse Ronan. Especially
Sally, who had a harder job than Frances (not being able to use voice – the most curcial tool in an actor’s arsenal), yet she made Eliza feel so fleshed-out and
lived in. Neither she nor the fish-man in The Shape of Water talked to each
other, yet Hawkins beautifully sold their romance; no easy feat.
I would have liked to see the honours be shared more
equally, say, Sally winning the BAFTA, Saoirse winning the SAG, and Frances
winning the Oscar. That would have been more reflective of the quality of their
performances, which were all top-notch.
Still, Frances McDormand is light years ahead of Margot
Robbie in I, Tonya, who did little more than don a bad wig and faff about on
the ice rink. Oscar-begging 101, there.
In place of Margot Robbie, I would have nominated Florence
Pugh for her unrepentant cruelty in Lady Macbeth, although the micro-budget of
that film sadly precluded awards campaigning, so that was never going to
happen.
In terms of performances that stood a chance, Vicky Krieps
was Daniel Day-Lewis’ equal in Phantom Thread. Watching her discover, then
wield her power over him was nothing short of delicious.
This week, my favourite person, Jennifer Lawrence shaded Phantom Thread, saying she could only get through the first three minutes ofit. Methinks she should have given it a bit more attention, because Krieps in Phantom Thread gave a more believable, layered performance than anything she’s
ever done. #ByeFelicia
Supporting Actor
Will win: Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards…
Should win: Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Deserved to be nominated: Michael Stuhlbarg,
I love Sam Rockwell. He’s one of the best dancers in
film and his performances have been quietly going under the radar for years. He
also seems unusually modest for a Hollyweird celebrity, referring to himself as
a ‘journeyman actor’ in his BAFTA speech.
Any other year, I would be fully behind him getting an
Oscar, so it’s quite bittersweet that he’ll be winning on Sunday for that
cartoon of a dense racist cop in Three Billboards.
For my money, I would have given it to Willem Dafoe, who
played a grizzled motel manager in The Florida Project. He was a relatable
character, one who had to balance sympathising and caring for all the children
resident at the motel, but he can’t be too soft on them either, or else they
and their parents take liberties.
Such was the subtle gravitas of Dafoe’s performance that
because we view the kids under his protective gaze, they’re not the shrieking
tykes that they might have come across as otherwise.
Dafoe is The Florida Project’s solitary Oscar nomination,
and 3BB is one of the Best Picture frontrunners, so, despite Dafoe having
overdue status, Rockwell easily takes this. I won’t grumble too much. Rockwell and
McDormand sparkled together, sharing an edgy, unconventional chemistry, and
if that racism apologism movie has to win anything, I’d rather it was for the
acting.
In case you were wondering about vote-splitting, by the way (Woody Harrelson is also nominated in this category for 3BB), that won't change things for Sam Rockwell. Studios are fine with campaigning for multiple actors in supporting categories (Warner Brothers submitted five actors in this field for Dunkirk, which was their fatal flaw: they should have focused on just one), it's Lead where they are notoriously averse to having two actors from the same film for (which led to Rooney Mara falling out with Harvey Weinstein, because he forced her to go supporting against her will. Not the first time Harvey Weinstein's forced a woman into doing something, amirite?)
In recent years alone, Amy Adams and Melissa Leo were both nominated for supporting actress for The Fighter, with Leo winning, and Jessica Chastain and Octavia Spencer (nominated again this year for The Shape of Water) nominated for The Help, with Spencer winning. Tomorrow will be another such case of two co-stars being nominated in the same supporting category, and one beating the other.
In terms of snubs, Michael Stuhlbarg was a godsend in Call Me By Your Name. You really got the sense that precocious Elio (Tim Tam’s
character) was well-loved by his bohemian parents, and much of that came from
the paternal warmth from Stuhlbarg. And his monologue was one of the
best-delivered in history, full of understanding and wisdom, and spoken so well, in Stuhlbarg's soothing tones.
Barry Keoghan was also notable in The Killing of a Sacred
Deer. The high-concept of the film meant that the actors could not have so much
as even the trace of a tongue in cheek, and nobody delivered the absurd
dialogue of that film with a straighter face than the odd-looking Dunkirk actor, as the boy who rains tragedy down
on Colin Farrell’s family.
Supporting Actress
Will win: Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Should win: Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread
Deserved to be nominated: Beanie Feldstein, Lady Bird
I watched I, Tonya on Monday and I really didn’t get the
hype about Janney’s performance as Tonya Harding’s abusive mother, LaVona.
Janney is a great actress, but she was pure pantomime villain in this film.
Compare that to 2010’s victor in this category, Mo’Nique as
the mother from hell in Precious. She was a monster, but in her crucial scenes,
she gave a window into her character’s (admittedly very warped) justification
for why she treated her daughter so badly. LaVona has no such layers; she just
barks insults at Margot Robbie for the film’s entire running time. It’s
uncomfortable to watch and not a particularly demanding role.
My choice would be Lesley Manville as Reynolds Woodcock’s
steely sister and business partner. Her Cyril can destroy you without so much
as looking up from her tea, and she’s all the more compelling for it.
By the way, Gary Oldman, Frances McDormand, Sam Rockwell and Allison Janney have all won all four of the televised precursors: the Golden Globes, Critics' Choice, SAG and BAFTAs. So they're pretty much dead certs to win the acting prizes this year.
(Uninspired, but at least it's not Casey Affleck or Emma Stone winning everything. Oscar season last year was tough, man).
Original Screenplay
Will win: Get Out
Should win:
Deserved to be nominated: Dunkirk
So, I’ve looked over the Oscar predictions on a few other
sites, and they all seem to be predicting Get Out to win for Original
Screenplay over 3BB, arguing that if 3BB wins for McDormand and Rockwell, the
Academy will want to acknowledge the zeitgeist pick, Get Out, somewhere.
I’m all for that, although I’m not sure I buy it – Get Out’s
message, that white liberals can be racist too, might have been a little too
direct in its honesty for the Academy, who prefer their depictions of racism to present
white people in a more favourable light.
But, because a 3BB win in this category would be horrendous,
I’mma go ahead and cross my fingers and predict Get Out win regardless.
(Earlier, when analysing the scripts, I predicted 3BB to win.)
Adapted Screenplay
Will win:
Should win: The Disaster Artist
Deserved to get nominated: Wonder
Call Me By Your Name had some nice lines, such as when Elio
reflects, 'I know everything and nothing’, not to mention Michael’s superlative
monologue, but, as a collective unit, the dialogue didn’t sing out to me in the
way Moonlight and Brokeback Mountain, two other gay films which have triumphed
in this category, did.
In fact, it’s probably the inconsistent script (and Armie
Hammer’s rather stilted performance) why Call Me By Your Name, for all its
tasty shots of a certain twink topless and fondling himself with a fruit, only
gets an 8/10 from me, rather than Moonlight and Brokeback Mountain, which are
both in my top 70.
My choice for the win would be The Disaster Artist’s laugh-a-minute script, essaying the nightmare that was working with
Tommy Wiseau on the shooting of The Room. In addition to entertaining the
audience, it was also a celebration of Greg and Tommy’s friendship, and, whilst
presenting Wiseau’s many quirks, still imbued him with humanity, rather than a
one-dimensional object of ridicule.
Also, the ‘ohai, Mark!’ scene. Goddamn hilarious!
Original Score
Will win:
Should win: Dunkirk
Deserved to be nominated: Coco
Read more about my analysis of the Oscar-nominated film
music here. Hans Zimmer is a freaking magician and Dunkirk is some of his best work. It was bad enough him losing to Alexandre Desplat in 2015 (when Interstellar's score >>> Grand Budapest Hotel's), but for the German to lose to the Frenchman again, when his work is so much better... bah!
Production Design
Will win:
Should win: Dunkirk
Editing
Will win:
Should win: Dunkirk
As with Get Out to take Original Screenplay, I’m predicting
rather optimistically here, given BAFTA inexplicably gave this damn award to
the tryhard getaway driver film with Kevin Spacey. I would have thought BAFTA
would be immune to the gimmicky editing tricks employed in Baby Driver, but
there’s no accounting for taste, especially with BAFTA these days.
Dunkirk did win the Editor’s Guild for Best Editing in a
Drama, whilst I, Tonya won for Best Editing in a Comedy (thus, beating Baby
Driver), so delusion or not, I’m gonna stick with Dunkirk here.
Plus Baby Driver has Kevin Spacey. I know Spacey didn't edit the film, but surely that alone has to
taint the film’s prospects of winning a tech award which has, historically,
been quite closely correlated with Best Picture nominees?
Look at the way British twink is holding onto his ears here. That attests to Dunkirk's superior Sound design, amirite?
Sound Mixing: Dunkirk
Sound Editing: Dunkirk
I toyed with predicting Dunkirk for one of these categories
and Blade Runner 2049 for the other, but, knowing me, whichever one I predicted
Dunkirk for, it would win the other category. So to ensure I get at least one
prediction right, I’m predicting Dunkirk for both, ahah.
BAFTA have just one ‘Best Sound’ category instead of two, which Dunkirk
won, so I’m hoping those booming canons, water ripples and fighter jet noises
all help this film bring home some bacon. And the panic-inducing tick-tick-ticking of Hans Zimmer's majestic score. Still can't believe he's not winning Score. Hella mad.
Original Song: ‘Remember Me’, Coco.
Again, optimistic. ‘This is Me’ from The Greatest Showman is
currently third in the charts and it won the Golden Globe for Best Song. But
it’s from the songwriters of La La Land who already won just a year ago. I
hope the Academy let someone else have a go, especially as ‘Remember Me’ is so
gorgeous and poignant in its deceptive simplicity, and ‘This is Me’ is so, so,
so trite.
Cinematography: Blade Runner 2049
This is Roger Deakins’ 14th nomination. He’s
never won for any of his thirteenth previous nominations. That narrative, the
mega-budget of Blade Runner 2049 and the fact that the Academy will want to
reward it somewhere, and the fact that BR2049 won both the BAFTA and
Cinematographer’s Guild for Best Cinematography, mean the stage is set for
Deakins to finally stake his win!
Costume Design: Phantom Thread
Hair and makeup: Darkest Hour
Animated Film: Coco
Visual Effects: Blade Runner 2049
Foreign film: A Fantastic Woman
Documentary: Icarus
Documentary short: Heroin(e)
Short film: DeKalb Elementary
Animated short: Negative Space
Documentary, short films, animated shorts, are all copied from
other prognosticators. I haven't seen any of these films so I'm going to defer to their judgement.
Please sir, can I have some more Oscars?
Sigh, Dunkirk is going to leave the Oscars with just three tech awards, if it's lucky. For such a masterpiece and pioneering achievement, it really deserves more, especially for Nolan.
On the flipside, I actually like The Shape of Water and enjoyed Three Billboards (with reservations), which is more than I can say for La La Land. So at least this year won't be as intolerable as last year.
And Dunkirk may not win Best Picture, but it will win the trophy that matters - film with the most babes in, 2017.
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