Saturday, February 23, 2008

Finalized Oscar Predictions.

Catherine's doing it. Kayleigh's doing it. I shall do it too.

Best Picture
Will win: No Country for Old Men. It's like, a dead cert. (unless it doesn't win.)
Should win: No Country for Old Men is the best film, Atonement meant a little more to me.
Deserved to get nominated: The Diving Bell and the Butterfly. The more I think about this film, the sadder I feel. It was something special. And The Assassination of Jesse James.

Best Director
Will win: Coen brothers
Should win: I’ve been rooting for the Coen brothers for a long while, but my new-found love for The Diving Bell and the Butterfly makes me side with Julian Schnabel. Although I liked Juno, I didn’t see what was so special about the direction, and I found There Will Be Blood’s direction a bit of a mess.
Deserved to get nominated: Christian Mungui for 4 Months, 3 Weeks and 2 Days. Not exactly the easiest film to sit through, but… wow.

Best Actor
Will win: Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood. The biggest certainty of the night.
Should win: Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood. He really was quite good.
Deserved to get nominated: James McAvoy, Atonement. Robbie = many, many kisses and love.

Best Actress
Will win: Julie Christie, Away from Her
Should win: Laura Linney or Ellen Page. I know I cheekily gave up in the middle of my "a look ahead" series, and part of the reason for it is that I simply couldn't decide which leading female performance I liked more. Linney was absolutely outstanding in The Savages and Page, despite her too-cool-for-school character, was just a vulnerable teenager deep down.

In terms of speech, though, I just KNOW that Marion Cotillard would give one of the most heartfelt, tear speeches in years, and I’d like her to win just for that. But, you know, as long as someone other than Cate Blanchett wins, I’ll be delighted.
Deserved to get nominated: Tang Wei in Lust, Caution is the one that immediately comes to mind. She made Lust, Caution worth the watch for me. The best female performance of 2007. I also really enjoyed Amy Adams in Enchanted, but to be honest, she could appear in an episode of Hollyoaks and I’d start hailing Emmy for her.

Best Supporting Actor
Will win: Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men
Should win: Casey Affleck. It’s just like the Sketch-in-Skins factor: I felt pity, I felt disgust, I felt pathos. A truly masterful performance, I don’t care if this is category fraud. (Hey, it didn’t stop me from rooting for Jake.)
Deserved to get nominated: Paul Dano, There Will Be Blood & Max Von Sydow in The Diving Bell and the Butterfly.

Best Supporting Actress
Will win: Cate Blanchett, I’m not There. This category is crazy though. Ruby Dee won the SAG. Tilda Swinton won the BAFTA. Cate won the Golden Globe, and Amy Ryan won all the Critics votes. So... maybe... Saoirse might win something? (I wouldn't bet my house on it though.)
Should win: Saoirse Ronan(!!!!) The rising star. The ray of sunshine. Whatever you want to call her, this Irish actress has given all child actors a model of how to behave if you want to win an Oscar - give a good performance. (Unlike Fanning, who after years of insufferable performances, tried a Hounddog. Shudder.)
Deserved to get nominated: Kelly Macdonald, Jennifer Garner, Romola Garai, Charlotte Gainsbourg. And some others, if there were more than 5 places. A good bunch this year.

Best Original Screenplay
Will win: Juno
Should win: Juno. It did get quite annoying with all the slang and try-hard phrases, but to paraphrase Empire, the moments where least were said were the most poignant. I actually cried with happiness when Paulie and Juno shared that
cuddle at the end, so, for that, I’m sticking by wisecracking Diablo “stripper” Cody.
Deserved to get nominated: I’m Not There and 4 Months, 3 Weeks & 2 Days

Best Adapted Screenplay
Will win: No Country for Old Men
Should win: The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Deserved to get nominated: Zodiac and The Assassination of Jesse James

Will win: No Country for Old Men
Should win: The Assassination of Jesse James
Deserved to get nominated: ??

Will win: No Country for Old Men
Should win: The Diving Bell and the Butterfly / The Bourne Ultimatum
Deserved to get nominated: Zodiac and The Assassination of Jesse James (repetition)

Art Direction
Will win: The Golden Compass
Should win: Atonement
Deserved to get nominated: The Assassination of Jesse James and Lust Caution

Will win: Atonement.
Should win: Atonement. The green dress, wheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!
Deserved to get nominated: Lust Caution.

Will win: La Vie En Rose
Should win: to be honest, it’s kind of hard to tell what’s make-up and what’s not, so I don’t really care. I think the La vie en rose crew would give a great speech, though so them.
Deserved to get nominated: Sweeney Todd

Will win: Atonement
Should win: Atonement
Deserved to get nominated: Alexandre Desplat is raped of a nomination again for his masterwork to Lust Caution.

Will win: Once
Should win: That’s How You Know. I can’t wait to see Amy perform!
Deserved to get nominated: Le Festin & The Hill

Will win: No Country for Old Men
Should win: Transformers, maybe?
Deserved to get nominated: Zodiac? Control? I know, Enchanted!

I don't like Megan Fox.

Sound Editing
Will win: Transformers
Should win: geh
Deserved to get nominated: geh

Visual Effects
Will win: Transformers
Should win: Transformers, but that doesn't mean Megan Fox is allowed to attend the Oscars. It's not fair.
Deserved to get nominated: Hairy Pot-uh

Will win: Ratatouille
Should win: Persepolis
Deserved to get nominated: The Simpsons Movie It was funny, it was funny!!!! (I remember "Spiderpig" so fondly because I had to play one of my teachers in a school play and he sang "spider-price") But it was funny, yes??!

Will win: No End In Sight
Should win: Sicko’s the only one I’ve seen. Twas alright.
Deserved to get nominated: Dunno.

Will win: The Counterfeiters
Should win: I dunno, it’s not like I’ve actually… seen any of them.
Deserved to get nominated: Was The Diving Bell and the Butterfly not eligible? 4 Months, 3 Weeks 2 Days it is then.


Kayleigh said...

Good predictions. I'm a bit confused about why The Diving Bell wasn't allowed to be in Foriegn Film - is it because France chose Persepolis as it's candidate? Why is Casey not up for Best Actor? He was the lead!! But I'm just glad he's been nominated - now we can see him and his pretty wife together again! I felt so much pity for Robert Ford, the ultimate obsessive fan! It'll be cool to see a former stripper win an Oscar, it gives us all a bit of hope. But I'm not taking my clothes off for any pervy executive, no matter what my script is like!
The lack of Zodiac, Angelina Jolie and James Mcavoy is unforgivable! I think The simpsons Movie was awesome, why the hate for it? Spiderpig will be remembered for many years. Plus how awesome would it have been to see the Simpsons in the audience instead of yet more penguins?
Are you watching the show online?

Banana Raccoon said...

I don't think I will be watching the Oscars live this year, after all. :( I just haven't found any streams yet and the ones I have found require registration/a thorough understanding of Arabic to follow the instructions so I just gave up.

I might download the Oscars a few days later and then write a report, or try to catch glimpses of the highlights. Ugh, we're gonna be so behind everyone else though... they'll be all "I can't believe Keira did THAT" and we won't know what she did until about 10 days later. :( :(

Kayleigh said...

Yeah, i'm all down about it. Will download it a few days later too, if only to see the glory butt kissing in whole. I also want to see all the pretty dresses because I'm sort of shallow that way. Didn't BBC used to show it? Stupid Sky! Let's hope Jon Stewart keeps things funny. Have you seen Empire's top 80 Oscar moments? There's some good ones.

Alison Flynn said...

I found your blog by clicking on your name over at Awards Daily. I'll be coming to read more often. :)

I'm with you on The Diving Bell. It was an absolutely beautiful movie and is my #1 of 2007.

It seems ridiculous to me that the film got nominated for Director, Adapted Screenplay, Editing (which 3 of the BP nominees didn't even get a nomination for) and Cinematography but no BP nom.

And I also feel your pain over the lack of a nomination for McAvoy. He'll get his due one of these days, I hope.

Banana Raccoon said...

Yeah! McAvoy's day will come... one of these days...

Jose said...

Interesting predix, yay for Cate as Bob!
Have a great Oscar night!

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