Sunday, January 21, 2007

My Finalized Oscar Predictions.

Firstly, the current view from my Skyline:


Okay, I shall predict them. Note, these are my predictions and not my personal choices, which would be a whole lot different. However, in some cases, my personal HOPES may have clouded my ability to predict properly. Read ahead and see.

Best Picture
- Babel
- The Departed
- Dreamgirls
- Letters from Iwo Jima
- The Queen

There are four nominees that I’m pretty much certain about – Babel, The Departed, Dreamgirls and The Queen, and one that I’m not so sure about – Letters of Iwo Jima. It’s main opposition for that much-coveted fifth spot is, of course, the overrated turd of the year, Little Miss Sunshine, which has done better than it overall in Critic’s Circles (God knows why.) But the Oscars adore the ground that Clint walks on, so I doubt they’ll ignore Letters. Another alternative would have been the laughably bad United 93, but, thankfully, that hasn’t actually done too well with SAGs, Golden Globes, etc, so, haha.

Um. As I write this, I’ve just discovered that Little Miss Sunshine won the PGA. Huh. Maybe I’m getting a little delusional.

Best Actor
- Leonardo DiCaprio, The Blood Diamond
- Ryan Gosling, Half Nelson
- Peter O'Toole, Venus
- Will Smith, The Pursuit of Happyness
- Forest Whitaker, The Last King of Scotland

I’m still not sure about this category. I saw Will Smith’s performance at the weekend, and though I considered it good, I didn’t find his best work, and I don’t think the Oscars will either. But, still. It hasn’t altogether been that strong a year for lead actors (save DiCaprio in The Departed, who was absolutely amazing), and the likely winner Forest Whitaker gave a good-but-extremely-hammy performance, which is such a shame, because I considered James McAvoy much better, and it looks like he’s going to go totally ignored.

Best Actress
- Penélope Cruz, Volver
- Judi Dench, Notes on a Scandal
- Helen Mirren, The Queen
- Meryl Streep, The Devil Wears Prada
- Kate Winslet, Little Children

A while back, I wrote about how I didn’t think that Streep would get nominated for Best Actress, because she just wasn’t good enough. Well, I now retract that, because I seem to be the only one who seems to think that she wasn’t good enough. If her Golden Globe win for Best Actress wasn’t enough to convince me this, then the various nominations – in BAFTA, SAG, etc, certainly seem to have done the trick.

Out of all the Oscar categories, this is the one I have the most affinity with: 2 out of my choices match those of Oscars – Cruz and Mirren, who were both sublime. I’m yet to see Notes on a Scandal, but will be there as soon as it gets released in the UK, because, having read the novel, I am now beyond excited to see how it gets transferred to screen. Meryl Streep wasn’t brilliant by her own extraordinarily high standards, but it was a good performance nonetheless, and Winslet gave a moderately good performance, I suppose.

Best Supporting Actor
- Leonardo DiCaprio, The Departed
- Eddie Murphy, Dreamgirls
- Brad Pitt, Babel
- Michael Sheen, The Queen
- Mark Wahlberg, The Departed

The idiocracy of pushing Leo in The Departed for support fully shows through here. In a perfect world, he should win this category hands down (though I’m yet to see Dreamgirls), but we’re not in a perfect world, so there. My oddest choice in predicting here would probably be to miss out Jackie Earle Haley in Little Children and Jack Nicholson in The Departed, yet include Mark Wahlberg for the same film. Well, although Haley has received his share of critic’s awards, at the end of the day, I just think that his portrayal of the disturbed paedophile will freak out Oscar voters too much. And also, I just didn’t think Nicholson was good, whereas Marky Mark was. I’m kinda hoping that Oscars are with me on that.

Best Supporting Actress
- Adriana Barraza, Babel
- Cate Blanchett, Notes on a Scandal
- Emily Blunt, The Devil Wears Prada
- Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls
- Rinko Kikuchi, Babel

Breslin? Blunt? Breslin? Blunt? Breslin? Blunt?

Well, here’s the thing. Abigail Breslin is young. Oscars naturally have a wariness towards young performances (though I’m still scratching my head at how Castle-Hughes could have gotten her nomination for her beyond mediocre performance in Whale Rider). But still. If Ivana Baquero, giver of best performance in a 2006 film can’t make it and the fantastic young cast of Offside aren’t getting nominated, then I simply refuse to believe that the Oscars will nominate Abigail “Cutesy” Breslin, for her lol-inducing performance in one of the worst films of the year. It would, obviously, make so much more sense to actually nominate the best female supporting performance of the year, the sublime Emily Blunt giving her best performance in a film that was about a trillion times more enjoyable – and intelligent – than Little Miss Sunshine.

Best Director
- Alejandro González Iñárritu, Babel
- Bill Condon, Dreamgirls
- Clint Eastwood, Letters from Iwo Jima
- Stephen Frears, The Queen
- Martin Scorsese, The Departed

I don’t like the idea of the five directors mirroring the five films exactly, but it did happen last year, so why not again? The only likely candidate to stop this perfect mirroring is the director of United 93, whose name I can’t be bothered to remember, because his film was just so bad.

Best Original Screenplay
- Babel
- Little Miss Sunshine
- Pan's Labyrinth
- The Queen
- Volver

Again, United 93 could make it here, instead of Pan’s Labyrinth, most likely, but something tells me that the Oscars value originality and creativity higher than pretension. But that’s just my guess.

Best Adapted Screenplay
- The Departed
- The Devil Wears Prada
- Dreamgirls
- Letters from Iwo Jima
- Notes on a Scandal

The Devil Wears Prada will get in, I tell ya! That film was actually pretty witty.

Best Cinematography
- Apocalypto
- Children of Men
- Flags of Our Fathers
- Letters from Iwo Jima
- Pan's Labyrinth

Best Editing
- Babel
- The Departed
- Dreamgirls
- Flags of Our Fathers
- The Queen

Okay, Editing is actually a more important category than people value it is, as, last year, one of Brokeback’s 8 nominations were not in Editing, and I think a film without a nomination in Best Editing hadn’t won Best Film since 1980. Well, yeah.

Best Art Direction
- Children of Men
- Dreamgirls
- Letters from Iwo Jima
- The Painted Veil
- Pan's Labyrinth

Best Costume Design
- The Devil Wears Prada
- Dreamgirls
- Marie-Antoinette
- The Prestige
- The Queen

Best Original Music Score
- Babel (Gustavo Santaolalla)
- The Da Vinci Code (Hans Zimmer)
- The Illusionist (Philip Glass)
- Notes on a Scandal (Philip Glass)
- The Painted Veil (Alexandre Desplat)

Some people had originally touted double nods for both Philip Glass AND Alexandre Desplat, with the latter also getting nominated for his work on The Queen, but I don’t think that’ll be the cast, as, though the score to The Queen was good, it was actually nothing special by Desplat’s standards. So the scores here are pretty much stand-alones, with only Babel as a Best Picture nominee. I do hope that The Da Vinci Code gets nominated for Score, as, though the film wasn’t fantastic (but I enjoyed it), the score was absolutely haunting and beautiful.

My biggest foible about this category is that Clint Mansell’s eerie, fantastic score to The Fountain won’t make it. Though I’m yet to see the film, one of my friends got me the OST, and I’ve listened to it at least once a day from then to now. That’s how fantastic it is.

Best Sound
- Apocalypto
- Babel
- The Departed
- Dreamgirls
- Letters from Iwo Jima

Best Sound Editing
- Apocalypto
- Superman Returns
- Pirates of the Caribbean II

Best Visual Effects
- Casino Royale
- Pirates of the Caribbean II
- Superman Returns

Best Makeup
- Apocalypto
- Pan’s Labyrinth
- Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest

Best Animated Feature
- Cars
- Flushed Away
- Happy Feet


Anonymous said...

I think Nicholson will make it.

Anonymous said...

Can you please stop whoring your blog every bloody chance you get?

jason said...

Yawn. Someone's jealous.

j said...

im not trying to be an ass, and obviously our opinions just differ on this, but if you honestly think that Little Miss Sunshine was one of the worst films of the year, like honestly, then your opinions are probably nothing more than opinons, and not a logical reflection of of how good certain films were this year. from your post, i get that you are really into this, and if thats the case, i am extremely critical of your ability to judge films.

j said...

oh man. your whole blog. your bafta nominations with the "delighted for _____, disgusted at the rest." are you one of those people under the delusion that other people love it when people complain? yikes. also, direction in little miss sunshine is "appauling"? do you know the first thing about direction? apparently not. im sure that you THINK you do, or that you WANT to think you, and im sorry to be the bearer of bad news, really i am, but you should really get a new hobby. maybe painting. but dont get inspiration from Goya. he was atrocious.

j said...

oh man, youre 16. sorry. if thats the case, i applaud your interest and dedication. clearly your unreasonable comments are just a reflection of random teenage hating.

the internet loves you. really.

Emily said...

Emma, pay no attention to what the wanker above said; it's obvious that someone just isn't getting any.

I love your blog, and so do lots of my friends. We think you're one of the greatest film critics around :)

Anonymous said...

^what Emily said.^

This "j" character needs to top himself. Soon.

Monkey said...

Maybe Emma said that the direction in LMS sucked because... it did suck. Anyone who knows anything about films can tell you that Little Miss Sunshine was one of the most poorly written, cliched films ever made.

So, before you pick fights with 16-year-old girls who have achieved more in 16 years than you have with your sad life, think about what you say. Shithead.

Maria said...

Oooh nice photo Emma!

And I agree with what everyone's said about this sad old man who's had a go at you. Just ignore him

Carla said...

Really beautiful photo.

As for predictions, I agree more with the technicals than the big ones. I still think Breslin will make it over Blunt.

And who is this j person? I love this line: "are you one of those people under the delusion that other people love it when people complain?" Well, I don't consider your WRITING complaining, and I really do love it. So there

paul haine said...

"are you one of those people under the delusion that other people love it when people complain?"

So, is 'j' complaining that Emma is complaining? If Emma complains about j's complaint, will j complain back? Is this going to turn into some sort of weird complaining feedback loop? Has this already happened? Would that explain why j doesn't use much in the way of punctuation or capitalisation? Is j, in fact, a fourteen year old? I think we need to be told.

RC said...

good list, and some fun choices...

and i totally agree with you on editing being an important shows a lot.

--RC of

Jamie Foxx said...

You're letting your hatred for Little Miss Sunshine cloud your predictions. The key to correctly predicting the Oscar noms is to take the emotion out of it. Also Dicaprio is more likely to get more lead votes in The Departed than Blood Diamond as The Departed is a sure best picture nominee.

Brian Erickson said...

Little Miss Sunshine and United 93 suck???? I think not.

Anonymous said...

Both LMS and Brian Erickson suck.

-Princess Shin- said...

Haha.. i see that you have a 'conversation' going on here.. Somebody is getting popular! =)

Anyway.. i wanna see Dreamgirls! =( Too bad it hasn't come to Malaysia yet! And i absolutely adore Cars! Fantastic movie!

Brian Erickson said...

Haha. I suck for liking a movie. Whoever "anonymous" is needs to sort him/herself out.

Great blog, btw.

Simon A said...

Can I step up for Little Miss Sunshine here? I do understand the criticisms of it, but it seems that its ever-increasing popularity just exacerbates how its detractors feel about it.

I had a really, really good time with it. A lot of people are saying that the characters are just caricatures thrown together, I can see that point of view, but "One of the worst pictures of the year", though, seems really harsh, as does "one of the most poorly written films ever made". Hate on it all you want, but it's not the embodiment of shitty cinema.

(If I had to choose what IS the embodiment of shittiness in today's cinema, it would probably be the "(insert genre here) Movie" trend soon to be vomited forth once more with "Epic Movie" with references to other films disguised as jokes. Or maybe PG-13 horror movies designed purely to make a quick buck off stupid teenagers frightened by loud noises.)

That said, I don't really think it deserves best picture, and it still strikes me as a bit of an odd choice. Go The Departed!

Great blog, though. Way better than mine, that's one of the reasons why I've mercifully abandoned it.

Ali said...

Nice going on Best Actor! I don't think anyone had that lineup going into yesterday morning - and if they included Leo, it was for The Departed.