Monday, April 03, 2006

Early Oscar Predictions 2007.

A few days ago, I hypocritically called some loser on the IMDb message boards “pathetic” for predicting the Oscars so early. Well. Hmm. Here I am, and I’m doing it. So yeah, I’m rather pathetic. Well, ya know. If you want to know why I’ve really done it, IMDb me. Not admitting it here.

But anyway, I’m glad I did it, because it has shown me that 2006 is not hopeless. There looks to be an interesting lineup. I probably shouldn’t say this, but before, I was looking forward to The Da Vinci Code and Mission Impossible III more than anything else (shh!), but I promise, that was because I didn’t know about all these treasures. A lot of my nominations are wishful thinking too, as you know, anything might happen.

Obviously this is still way too early in advance. Many secret new movies may be discovered (mm? Munich? Baby?). I’ve probably even got original screenplay & adapted mixed up; I’ll definitely have branded some of the leading roles support and vice versa. But I’ve never done this before and it will be interesting to see how many I get right. I’ll do different predicts every month.

Film
The Good Shepherd
Breaking and Entering
Flags of our Feathers
Goya’s Ghosts
World Trade Centre

Basically, this looks to be De Niro’s year. The budget of his CIA flick is sky high, and he has secured talents such as Matt Damon, Joe Pesci, Angelina Jolie, as well as himself, for the project. I predict a Clint Eastwood in M$B acting-directing nomination for him, as well as a best film win.

Clint Eastwood’s past two films have both faired well at the Academy. Flags of Our Feathers ought to be no different. World Trade Centre will be the first major movie to openly look at 9/11, and for that alone, it will probably score an Oscar nomination.

Director
Robert de Niro – The Good Shepherd
Martin Scorsese – The Departed
Francis Ford Coppola – Youth Without Youth
Anthony Minghella – Breaking and Entering
Clint Eastwood – Flags of Our Feathers

Four of the directors here are big hitters. No matter how good Clint’s work on Flags of our Feathers will be, he won’t get more than a nomination, because M$B was just two years ago. Stills from Marty Scorsese’s new film, The Departed excite me, but their action-thriller roots may work against him in getting that Oscar. But he will get nominated, in my opinion, if just to raise the article “Bobby Vs. Marty!” What an Oscar night that would be.

Actor
Forest Whitaker – The Last King of Scotland
Matt Damon – The Good Shepherd
Javier Bardem – Goya’s Ghosts
Jude Law - Breaking and Entering
Adam Sandler – Empty City

Whitaker is well-respected in the Academy and has never scored a nomination before.

BTW, you did see Sandler’s name there for Empty City. He surprised us with a great turn in Punch-Drunk Love, and may very well do it again in Mike Binder’s humane post-9/11 movie.

Actress
Annette Bening – Running with Scissors
Helen Mirren – The Queen
Kate Winslet – Little Children
Nicole Kidman – Fur
Laura Dern – Inland Empire

Buzz for Bening’s performance started before the film even came out. This year, with no Swank to worry about, it looks like she’s finally going to get her Oscar. Winslet and Kidman are all popular amongst the Academy, and their nominations may come from that more than the performances, though Kidman’s role in Fur sounds every bit as baity as Bening’s. Should be interesting.

Supporting Actor
Don Cheadle – Empty City
Robert de Niro – The Good Shepherd
Joe Pesci – The Good Shepherd
Tim Robbins – Hotstuff
Jamie Foxx – Miami Vice

Firstly, I’d like to say that, yes, I honestly do think Mr. Foxx stands a chance for an Oscar nomination for Miami Vice. He scored one for Collateral, which, in its entirety, is not an Oscar-like movie, and he has already won for Ray, so Foxx is clearly popular amongst the voters. And Miami Vice will prove to be box office draw, so this could the Academy’s smart way of getting the general public to tune in.

I now have to explain Cheadle. I understand that a starring role alongside Adam Sandler doesn’t sound like obvious Oscar bait, but with his promising track record and noble demeanour, Cheadle will nail his role. And Oscar voters love making Oscar history. Cheadle and Whitaker in the same night will be a wonderful night, ala Denzel & Halle in ’02.

Supporting Actress
Maria Bello – Thank You For Smoking
Cate Blanchett – The Good German
Juliette Binoche – Breaking and Entering
Laura Linney - Breach
Meryl Streep – A Priare Home Companion

Maria was snubbed for A History of Violence, and she was great in The Cooler. This should be enough for voters to forget her Coyote Ugly roots.

Best Original Screenplay
Cars
The Good Shepherd
Breaking and Entering
Goya's Ghosts
Southland Tales

Every year, a little obscurity makes it, and I think this year’s nom for indie will be Richard Kelly’s Southland Tales, especially as many think he was snubbed for Donnie Darko. I think Cars might just snake in for screenplay – animated films are getting better and better written.

Best Adapted Screenplay
The Good German
All the King’s Men
Can You Keep a Secret?
Thank You for Smoking
Flags of Our Feathers

Can You Keep a Secret is actually one of my favourite chicklits. I know it won’t make it on there, but a girl can dream.

Score: Little Children
Film Editing: Miami Vice
Cinematography: Goya’s Ghosts
Costume: Marie-Antoinette
Art Set Décor: The Black Dahlia
Make up: Pirates of the Caribbean III
VFX: Pirates of the Caribbean III
Sound: Flags of Our Feathers
Sound Editing: Cars
Animated Film: Cars

Two people who won’t get nominated, for any roles
01. Scarlett Johansson
02. Kirsten Dunst

Just …. Shoot me if this happens, OK? Which it most certainly won’t.

And, to finish

My 11 Eagerly Anticipated Films of 2006
01. The Good Shepherd
02. Cars
03. The Departed
04. The Da Vinci Code
05. Miami Vice
06. Empty City
07. Mission Impossible III
08. Goya’s Ghosts
09. Thank you For Smoking
10. The Good German
11. Hotstuff

20 comments:

MysticFist said...

I thought you wouldn't be watching the Oscars again? I probably will, though I said I wouldn't. The thrill is gone, though, as I can't bring myself to care anymore...

Best Picture
World Trade Center (Oliver Stone)
Flags of our Feathers (Cool Clint)
The Good Shepherd (Robert De Niro)
The War Magician (Peter Weir)
Youth Without Youth (Francis Ford Coppola)

It's very hard to predict all this a year in advance. For all I know, Snakes on a Plane could win! I mean, it can't be worse than Crash, can it?

Best Director
The War Magician (Peter Weir)
Oliver Stone (World Trade Center)
Cool Clint (Flags of our Feathers)
Sofia Coppola (Marie-Antoinette)
Francis Ford Coppola (Youth Without Youth)

Peter Weir, yes, and this is not just a case of wishful thinking. He's been nominated a few times and, if you ask me, should have no less than two Oscars under his belt by now. This 'The War Magician' sounds great, and it just seems to be the kind of film that could finally give this tremendous director his award (which cannot be said about Marty's title). Something tells me De Niro won't even be nominated... don't know why.

Rocky Balboa to win Best Original Screenplay! Wishful thinking again, sort of, but it's Sly's comeback and they love that sort of thing... it will be great. Yes, good call on Southland Tales, even though Donnie Darko's screenplay was shameful. And Sean Penn should be nominated (perhaps win) for Lead Actor again. You seen the original All the King's Men? It's the kind of film an actor can really shine in... something tells me he'll do a great a job in it. Oh and Marie-Antoinette for Best Cinematography too. And Babel for Best Editing.

MysticFist said...

Oh, and my Most Eagerly Anticipated Films of the year...
01. Rocky Balboa, what else?
02. INLAND EMPIRE (Lynch)
03. Miami Vice (Mann)
04. The Black Dahlia (De Palma)
05. The War Magician (Weir)
06. Roman Nights (Bogdanovich)
(how cool, that's my five favourite directors)
07. Snakes on a Plane (MASTERPIECE)
08. The Departed (Marty)
09. The DaVinci Code (Howard)
10. Flags of Our Fathers (Cool)

TBP4 said...

Munich, or "Untitled Spielberg 1972 Olympics Project," was the frontrunner from day one last year. It just came on quick for everyone else.

FIST, The DaVinci Code is going to be terrible. I'm calling it right now.

MysticFist said...

I can tell. But I liked the book (sue me), and I've always claimed it to be impossible for someone to turn this novel into a film... it'll be interesting to see how terrible it gets!

jean said...

It'll be '04 deja vu with Bening Vs. Winslet and neither winning

alessandro said...

I know why you won see M:I:3 so much. PSH. right?

Emma said...

How can I say no?

Anyone else have any predictions?

Emma said...

And TBP: I'm going to go out on a limb and say...

The Da Vinci Code will be... um... interesting.

claire said...

Adam Sandler and Don Cheadle have no chance. Especially Adam Sandler.

And Miami Vice won't win for Editing. It just won't.

LOTR collector said...

You're not going to get any of these right. What's the point in predicting so early?

Emma said...

Re: Alessandro/a (there are two people with similar names!)

Of course I am looking forward to MI3 for my Phil and my Phil only.

Re: Claire

We'll just see.

Re: LOTR collector

Sigh. Go He ni zi ji de niao, please.

Anonymous said...

They don't get more hypocritical than you, either.

Anonymous said...

sean penn
brad pitt
ed harris
forest whitaker
peter o'toole best actor
meryl streep
maria bello
the actress of queen
...
...
best supporting actor
eddie murphy
james cromwell
michael caine
james gandolfini
jack nicholson

Anonymous said...

what about the incredibly talented mary-louise parker for her (supporting) role in "the assassination of jesse james" ?
I bet on julianne moore (she's the best !) for "Freedomland" and also for "The children of men" and "Trust the man"

Anonymous said...

So far my acting picks are:

Best Actor
Javier Bardem, Goya's Ghosts
Ryan Gosling, Half Nelson
Richard Griffiths, The History Boys
Toby Jones, Infamous
Forrest Whitaker, The Last King of Scotland
wild card: Leonardo deCaprio, The Departed

Best Actress
Annette Bening, Running with Scissors
Penelope Cruz, Volver
Helen Mirren, The Queen
Rachel Weisz, the Fountain
Kate Winslet, Little Children
wild card: Nicole Kidman, Fur

Best Supporting Actor
Adam Beach, Flags of Our Fathers
Don Cheadle, Empty City
Jack Nicholson, The Departed
Brad Pitt, Babel
Ian Roberts, 3 Needles
wild card: Tim Robbins, Catch A Fire

Best Supporting Actress
Maria Bello, Thank You For Smoking
Cate Banchett, Babel
Jennifer Hudson, Dreamgirls
Chloe Sevigny, 3 Needles
Meryl Streep, The Devil Wears Prada
wid card: Lucy Liu, 3 Needles

Anonymous said...

i guess that there are some interesting performances not reconized yet...

Supporting actress
1.Robin Wright Penn for Brakeng and Entering
2. Sandra Bullock for Infamous
3Queen Latifah for Stranger Than Fiction.
3. Maria Bello for World Trade Center
4.5. Queen Latifah and Maggie Gylenhaal for Strange Than Fiction

Lead Actress.
1. Nicole Kidman for Fur
2. Naomi Watts for The painted Veil
3. Cate Blanchet for Babel or The Good German
4Patricia Clarkson for Conquistadora
5. Penelope Cruz for Volver.
6. Hellen Mirren for The queen

Lead Actor.
1.2. Matt Damon y Leonardo Dicaprio for The Departed or the good german (Damon).
3. Benicio del Toro for Guerilla
4.Javier Bardem for Goyas Ghost
5. Jhonny Deep for The Divin Bell and the Butterfly

Supportin Actor
1. Ryan Phillipe for Flags of our fathers
2.Gael Garcia Bernal for Babel
3.jason Scwarztman for Marie- Antoniette
4.Barry Pepper for Flags of our fathers.
5

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